Mortgage News

Interest rate review - September 23 2008
September 24th, 2008 4:26 PM
The Markets. Rates continued their downward trend this week, reaching a level not seen since February of this year. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending September 18, 30-year fixed rates averaged 5.78%, down sharply from 5.93% the week before. The average for 15-year fixed plunged again to 5.35%. Adjustables were also down significantly with the average for one-year adjustables decreasing to 5.03% and five-year adjustables falling to 5.67%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 6.34%. "Interest rates for 30-year mortgages fell for the 5th consecutive week, amounting to a total decline of about 0.75 percentage points," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "As a result, mortgage applications surged nearly 58 percent since August 15th, largely led by a 122 percent gain in applications for refinancing, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The MBA also reports that fixed mortgages are currently the predominant choice among homebuyers and families looking to refinance. Over the first two weeks of September, 95 percent of new applications were for fixed mortgages. Since the end of 2007, the number of ARM applications have fallen by almost 50 percent."

Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages
Updated September 19, 2008

Daily Value Monthly Value

Sept. 18 August
6-month Treasury Security 0.79% 1.97%
1-year Treasury Security 1.53% 2.18%
3-year Treasury Security 2.05% 2.70%
5-year Treasury Security 2.67% 3.14%
10-year Treasury Security 3.54% 3.89%
12-month LIBOR–WSJ
3.237% (Aug)
12-month MTA
2.664% (Aug)
11th District Cost of Funds
2.698% (July)
Prime Rate
5.00% (April)

Posted by George Chapin on September 24th, 2008 4:26 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Wild and Crazy??? AIG Bailout
September 24th, 2008 4:27 PM
"Wild and Crazy"

Just when you think the world can’t get any crazier, it happens. What a wild ride. In the past few weeks the government has taken over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and also now has rescued a major insurer, AIG, to the tune of $85 billion. In the meantime the government also let Lehman Brothers fall by the wayside without a rescue. Now the stock market has rallied upon the news that the Feds will start purchasing distressed mortgages from financial institutions. In a few hours the news mostly reversed a drop of almost 1,000 points over one week for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

It is the housing crisis causing the financial crisis. Institutions are weighed down by mortgage debt that is defaulting. The more severe the crisis, the lower rates have fallen. And it is lower rates that can hasten the end of the housing crisis which will also end the financial crisis. As rates go lower and housing demand picks up (reports have indicated that this is already starting to happen), confidence will be restored in the mortgage markets. And this confidence will help banks lessen their present round of tightening of guidelines that is shutting many prospective homeowners out of purchasing their dream home. It may take some time but we say–let the next cycle begin!


Posted by George Chapin on September 24th, 2008 4:27 PMPost a Comment (0)

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The US Housing Market and Renting
September 24th, 2008 4:27 PM
It’s more affordable to buy than to rent in many U.S. markets, according to data compiled by the National Low Income Housing Coalition. Of the 100 most populous metro areas, 57 have average three-bedroom rental costs higher than the cost of a 6-percent interest rate loan for a typical low-priced house, the coalition said in a just-released report. That means people renting two-bedroom apartments would be better off buying a low-priced home in 24 of the 100 largest metro areas. However, when determining if it’s better to buy or rent, credit history is a crucial component to consider. A prospective buyer who is credit worthy of a 6 percent mortgage will pay a third less in monthly payments than someone who qualifies for an 8 percent loan. And in many cities that can be a difference of hundreds of dollars and push them over the line to where renting actually makes more sense. Source: MSN Real Estate

Congressional leaders and the Bush administration are working with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke to prepare a massive intervention to revive the U.S. financial system. The proposed plan reportedly includes using hundreds of billions of dollars in government funding to buy bad loans, leaving banks with more money and fewer problems and allowing them to again lend money. Paulson and Bernanke urged lawmakers to approve the plan rapidly, presenting what some described as a “chilling” picture of the state of the financial system.  Congressional leaders were told that the consequences would be grave if the legislation doesn’t pass by the end of next week. Taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, creating a new source of funding for investment banks, and assuming control of insurance giant American International Group obviously hasn’t been enough to end the crisis. It hasn’t stopped $79 billion in withdrawals from money-market funds, which are a critical source of funding for the U.S. financial system. "The costs of doing nothing are enormous," said Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. Source: The Washington Post

Activity is slowing in the commercial real estate market in response to tightening credit and weak economic growth, according to the National Association of Realtors. In its latest Commercial Real Estate Outlook, the NAR reports that financing problems stemming from the crisis on Wall Street, not a lack of demand, are curbing real estate transactions. "Although capital remains available for residential loans, the credit crunch is pronounced in commercial lending," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. "Combined with a slowing economy, the lack of credit is curtailing activity in the commercial real estate sectors. As a result, there’s been a slowdown in the net absorption of space, which is leading to higher vacancies and more modest rent growth." Source: National Mortgage News


Posted by George Chapin on September 24th, 2008 4:27 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Federal "takeover" of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
September 24th, 2008 4:25 PM
Breaking News. Federal officials unveiled an extraordinary takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, putting the government in charge of the twin mortgage giants and the $5 trillion in home loans they back. The move marks Washington’s most dramatic attempt yet to shore up the nation’s housing market, which is suffering from record foreclosures and falling prices. Analysis in next week’s Real Estate Report.

Let’s Talk About The Future By now just about everyone in America is tired of hearing bad news regarding what is happening to real estate. Soaring foreclosures and lower house prices are in the news every day. However, if you read the article in the News Section regarding the census bureau projections, a different picture appears. In the next 40 years, 52 million housing units will be needed to accommodate growth. That is the equivalent of the United States adding the population of Canada and Mexico over a four decade period of time. At the present time, housing units are being added at a level of approximately one million per year including multi-family units. That would leave us 12 million short if we did not need to rebuild many older housing units, which of course will not be the case.

The point? People will always need a place to live. The current housing crisis could lead to a longer-term housing shortage if building continues to slow. The longer the housing slump, the stronger the recovery. So while the short-term value of your real estate investment may not be performing well, for those who understand that real estate is long-term investment, the future is rosier than ever. And for those with a real long-term vision, falling real estate prices provide a unique buying opportunity.


Posted by George Chapin on September 24th, 2008 4:25 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Census Bureau population projections
September 24th, 2008 4:24 PM
When the Census Bureau released population projections last month, more attention was paid to the country’s changing racial composition than to the massive scope of the increase. What’s clear is that the latest numbers will inevitably give the real estate business a boost. The Census Bureau is projecting an increase of 135 million people in the U.S, a 44 percent rise, by 2050. That’s equivalent to the entire populations of Mexico and Canada moving to the United States. The bureau estimates that this population boom, largely fueled by immigration, will require 52 million new housing units, along with more places for people to shop and work. Source: The Washington Post

Extreme overvaluation in the nation’s housing market was "essentially nonexistent" in the second quarter, an indication that "the nation’s housing ‘bubble’ has popped and house prices reflect a healthy balance in relation to long-term fundamentals," according to an analysis released by Global Insight Inc., Waltham, Mass. The quarterly housing valuation analysis, House Prices in America, found that prices fell in 152 of the 330 covered metropolitan markets in the second quarter, representing 46% of all single-family units in the United States. "Although the markets that were extremely overvalued two years ago are seeing expected price declines, other areas are seeing price declines due to weak economic conditions," said Jeannine Cataldi, senior economist and manager of Global Insight’s Regional Real Estate Service. "The market has a lot of inventory to work through before prices will change course." The analysis is a joint effort of Global Insight and National City Corp., Cleveland. Source: National Mortgage News

Inheriting property can be exceedingly confusing for the heirs, particularly if they plan to sell the property. While getting expert legal advice is the best approach for the person who has inherited property, here is some basic information that can help someone better understand the situation: Every state has a legal process that allows the person who was willed property to transfer ownership of it from the previous owner’s name to the new owner’s name. The attorney assisting with the probate of the will can help fill out the forms. If there is no lawyer involved, sometimes someone in the clerk of courts office can guide the person inheriting property through the transfer process. Generally, there is little or no transfer tax or other cost involved because the person who is inheriting the property didn’t pay anything for it. In addition, when a person dies and title is transferred to a spouse or a child, the due-on-sale clause in a mortgage contract doesn’t apply. Otherwise, while a lender could call the loan, in the current economic climate it is unlikely if the person inheriting the property makes regular payments. Source: Real Estate Matters Syndicate

Posted by George Chapin on September 24th, 2008 4:24 PMPost a Comment (0)

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An Interesting Number
September 2nd, 2008 12:58 PM
The economy grew at a 3.3% rate in the second quarter, according to a government report released late last week. That is interesting news. For all the talk that we are in a recession, it is hard to digest economic growth that is in the "healthy range." True, the growth figures were pumped up by temporary stimulus checks issued by the government during the quarter. In addition, the weaker dollar is making our goods a bargain overseas and thus stimulating our exports and the manufacturing sector.

A stronger economy could cause the Federal Reserve Board to raise rates this year. But not so fast. In the present quarter there were no stimulus checks and the dollar is actually getting stronger. Overseas economies are getting weaker and this will cause them to import less of our goods. Weaker economies could also keep the pressure off of oil prices as well. We feel that the third quarter economic growth figures will be a much more accurate picture of the health of the economy. If oil prices stabilize, the Fed is likely to wait and view the preliminary third quarter readings issued at the end of October. In the meantime, the employment report to be released at the end of this week will give us a better picture of "today’s" economy. The picture may not be quite as rosy.


Posted by George Chapin on September 2nd, 2008 12:58 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Mortgage Interest Rate Update - September 2, 2008
September 2nd, 2008 12:57 PM
The Markets. Rates continued their downtrend in the past week. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending August 28, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.40%, down from 6.47% the week before. The average for 15-year fixed fell to 5.93%. The average for one-year adjustables increased to 5.33% and five-year adjustables rose slightly to 6.03%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 6.67%. "Interest rates for fixed mortgages continue to drift down as reports of economic weakness persist. July’s leading economic indicators fell by more than the market consensus and manufacturing slowed in both the Philadelphia and Richmond regions. Adjustables, on the other hand, rose slightly after the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee hinted it might increase the overnight bank lending rate in its August 5th minutes," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "The housing front is providing some encouraging signs. The pace of home price declines slowed down for the fourth straight month in June and the number of metro areas exhibiting monthly gains rose from seven to nine, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller® 20-city composite index. There are also signs more buyers may be getting ready to return to the market. The Conference Board says the share of households planning to buy a home within six months is now at its highest level since March."

Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages
Updated August 29, 2008

Daily Value Monthly Value

August 28 July
6-month Treasury Security 1.98% 1.98%
1-year Treasury Security 2.19% 2.28%
3-year Treasury Security 2.62% 2.87%
5-year Treasury Security 3.09% 3.30%
10-year Treasury Security 3.79% 4.01%
12-month LIBOR–WSJ
3.285% (July)
12-month MTA
2.885% (July)
11th District Cost of Funds
2.829% (June)
Prime Rate
5.00% (April)

Posted by George Chapin on September 2nd, 2008 12:57 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Tax Credit - Housing Bill
September 2nd, 2008 12:57 PM
News continues to be released regarding the tax credit authorized by the recent house law. Here are some facts regarding the credit. First time homebuyers who purchase a principal residence between April 9, 2008 and July 1, 2009 qualify for the tax credit and it is retroactive for buyers who have already closed. The maximum credit is $7500 or 10% of the purchase price if lower than a $75,000 sales price. If the home is purchased in 2009, homebuyers can elect to amend 2008 tax returns and claim a tax credit. The tax credit is “recaptured” by the IRS, and is an interest-free loan and paid back over a 15-year time period. Who doesn’t qualify? Non-resident aliens; buyers who finance homes with tax-exempt mortgage bond programs; and if the property is disposed or ceases to be a principal residence before end of tax year. Finally, the credit phases out for individuals with adjusted gross Income between $75,000 – $95,000 and between $150,000 – $170,000 for joint filers. Source: Various News Sources

U.S. builders applied for fewer permits to build apartments in the second quarter, according to a survey from the National Association of Home Builders. The Multifamily Rental Market Index showed that market-rate rental apartment starts fell to 38.1 from 52.9 for the same period in 2007. Affordable starts also fell. "An oversupply of housing inventory in general, combined with systematic job losses, is starting to take a toll on the rental housing market," says David Seiders, NAHB’s chief economist. Source: Dow Jones International

Some analysts reacting to the news that home sales rose a healthy 3.1 percent in July compared to June say the increase predicts further improvement. Others are more pessimistic. "We are not yet ready to call the current levels a bottom but clearly most of the declines are behind us," says Adam York, a Wachovia Corp. economist. "The good news is the trough is behind us," says Harm Bandholz, a New York-based economist with UniCredit, but Bandholz warns that tighter lending standards and rising foreclosures will continue to put pressure on housing prices. Real estate consultant John Burns, who advises large builders and investment firms, says he thinks supply and demand will remain out of whack until there is a 46 percent decline in the inventory of homes on the resale market. Burns, who is president of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, estimates that by 2010 the most stable markets will reach equilibrium and by 2011, the national market will move into better balance. Overall, he believes that it will take until 2014 for it to be business as usual. Sources: The Wall Street Journal and Business Week

Posted by George Chapin on September 2nd, 2008 12:57 PMPost a Comment (0)

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